Market Developments

• Canadian mustard exports improved slightly to 7,300 tonnes in October, marginally better than last year but below the 5-year average of 8,700 tonnes. While volumes to the US picked up a bit in October, the Q1 total of 9,100 tonnes to the US is still trailing last year’s 11,600 tonnes. Meanwhile, exports to the EU in the first three months of 2025/26 are 8,000 tonnes, an improvement over last year at 5,800 tonnes. While a large increase in monthly exports is needed to hit our full-year target of 110,000 tonnes, we think there’s potential for improved volumes to the US and the EU that could get us closer to that forecast.
• This week, the USDA issued its first and only estimate of the 2025 US mustard crop at 71.1 mln pounds or 32,300 tonnes, 31% less than last year and back down to more normal levels. The yield was reported at 636 lb/acre, very close to the 5-year average but still historically low. With the smallest crop since 2021, we expect an increase in 2025/26 imports will be needed, which we’re pegging at 135 mln pounds or 61,200 tonnes, versus 54,400 tonnes in 2024/25. Even with that increase in imports, 2025/26 US supplies would still be below average.
• While we don’t have official estimates of 2025 mustard production in the Black Sea region, there have been anecdotal reports that suggest seeded area was lower in Russia and Kazakhstan but somewhat higher in Ukraine. Based on output of other crops, we think 2025 yields could certainly be average or slightly above, which would be enough to offset the acreage declines. As a result, a reasonable 2025 production estimate for the region could be around 190,000 tonnes, almost unchanged from our estimate for 2024. Looking ahead to 2026, we wouldn’t be surprised to see Russian mustard acreage decline further as the EU tariffs have depressed prices in Russia.
• On the surface, extremely large Canadian mustard supplies should be forcing prices even lower, although growers are notoriously “disciplined” with sales when prices are depressed. The added feature though is the lower quality of the 2024 and 2025 mustard crops. Based on the Sask Ag’s grade estimates for the last two years, we estimate only 165,000 tonnes of 2025/26 supplies are a 1Can and 235,000 tonnes combined are a 1Can and 2Can. This means supplies available for export and domestic processing aren’t nearly at the levels shown by the blue line in the chart below. That’s still not historically tight, but certainly not as heavy as shown by the overall supply number.