Market Developments
- The StatsCan estimate of Dec 31 mustard stocks wasn’t really a surprise and indicates that (on paper at least) supplies are very heavy. The 229,000 tonnes were on par with the previous year and the highest since 2005/06. Keep in mind though that an unusually large portion of the stocks, as much as 50,000 tonnes, are lower quality of 3Can or Sample grade. Even so, the supplies of 1Can and 2Can mustard are still comfortable but aren’t excessive. Price behaviour also suggests that supply levels vary by type, with oriental supplies lower than yellow while brown is the most comfortable.
- Canadian mustard exports improved in November to 8,900 tonnes, in line with the 5-year average for the month and 1,000 tonnes better than a year ago. As usual, the US was the largest destination at 3,900 tonnes but movement to Europe, particularly Belgium and Netherlands, remained firm. Through the first four months of 2025/26, 30,300 tonnes of mustard have been exported, better than the last two years but slightly behind the 5-year average of 31,700 tonnes. Our export forecast for 2025/26 is an ambitious 110,000 tonnes, in line with 2022/23 but that will require monthly exports to average close to 10,000 tonnes for the rest of the year. The peak of the export year is still ahead, but we may need to trim our forecast if volumes don’t improve soon.
- The EU imported 6,900 tonnes of mustard in December, up slightly from the previous two months but remaining in line with the volumes for much of 2024/25. Imports from Canada improved to 1,800 tonnes but the noticeable gain was the increase in imports from Kazakhstan of 2,900 tonnes at discounted prices. So far in 2025/26, imports from Kazakhstan have totaled 11,100 tonnes, in line with the full-year total for 2024/25. This is despite a smaller 2025 Kazakh mustard crop, with the official production estimate at 17,100 tonnes.
- Old-crop bids for oriental mustard are outperforming the other classes but have levelled off in the last few weeks. Meanwhile, the average yellow mustard bid is easing lower while brown has dropped further and is now at the lowest point in a year. New-crop bids are still limited but for oriental mustard, are below the spot price. Even so, oriental is close to new-crop yellow and, with the yield advantage for oriental, suggests buyers are more interested in attracting oriental than yellow. Meanwhile, new-crop brown mustard bids are historically low, signaling buyers have less interested in attracting those acres in 2026.
Outlook
The lack of strong export movement of mustard is an increasing concern. Even though a portion of 2025/26 supplies are low quality, there’s enough mustard to match this moderate export pace without too much difficulty. Of course, the variable price behaviour for the individual classes indicates tighter supplies for oriental and the most comfortable for brown, with yellow somewhere in between. Without a pickup in export movement though, bids will run mostly sideways into the spring. If new-crop bids are strong enough to attract more acreage, next year’s market could also remain flat, as long as weather in 2026 is somewhat close to average.
